Holiday Shopping Trends 2026: Spending Forecasts and Dates

Holiday shopping in 2026 is on track for a record. The two forecasts most marketers plan the season around landed in the last few weeks, and both say this year will beat last year.

The National Retail Federation expects November and December sales to cross a trillion dollars. Adobe expects online sales alone to pass $275 billion. Both are records, and the details show where the money moves, from Black Friday 2026 through Cyber Monday and into December.

How much will people spend this holiday season?

The NRF forecast, released October 15, puts November and December retail sales up 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Last year grew 3.1% to $972 billion, so this year’s growth is faster on a bigger base.

A few details worth knowing before you plan around that number:

• The window is November 1 through December 31. NRF leaves out auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, so it measures retail only.
• Retailers are hiring for it. NRF expects 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires.
• It’s part of a strong year. NRF’s forecast for all of 2026 retail is growth of 4.4% to $5.6 trillion.

Put together, shoppers are spending more, and a bigger share of it is happening online.

Holiday shopping trends 2026: what Adobe expects online

Adobe’s forecast, published September 28, covers the same window from the online side. Adobe expects $275.1 billion in US online sales from November 1 to December 31, up 6.7%.

The trends inside it are the part that should change your plan:

• Mobile is the default. Adobe expects 63% of online holiday spending to happen on a phone.
• Discounts start early and peak late. Adobe expects discounts of up to 14% in early November and up to 21% just before Thanksgiving, peaking at up to 30% during Cyber Week, then up to 10 to 15% through December.
• Buy now, pay later keeps growing. Adobe expects $21.3 billion in buy now, pay later spending for the season, up 6.6%, with $1.09 billion of it on Cyber Monday alone.
• AI is now part of how people shop. Adobe expects traffic from AI assistants to retail sites to rise 130% this season, with Thanksgiving up 159%. In Adobe’s survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of people who’ve used AI to shop online said they feel more confident in their purchase, and 69% said they’re less likely to return it.
• Social and creators drive more of the revenue. Adobe expects social media’s share of holiday revenue to grow 17% and affiliates’ share to grow 12%, against 4% for paid search. Influencers and creators bring in 22% of affiliate traffic.

The categories with the most dollars are electronics ($63.3 billion), apparel ($51.3 billion) and furniture ($33.4 billion). Grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3%) and cosmetics ($9.2 billion, up 9.5%) are both growing faster than the season overall.

Black Friday 2026 predictions

Adobe expects Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, to bring in $47.5 billion online, up 7.4%. The big days break down like this:

• Thanksgiving, Thursday, November 26: $6.9 billion, up 8.5%
• Black Friday, Friday, November 27: $12.9 billion, up 9.2%
• Cyber Monday, Monday, November 30: $15.1 billion, up 6.2%

Black Friday is growing fastest of the three, helped by earlier and deeper discounts. Cyber Monday is still the biggest online shopping day of the season, and Adobe expects it to top $15 billion in a single day.

Two more dates matter if you run a local business or a mission driven brand. Small Business Saturday falls on November 28, and Giving Tuesday falls on December 1. Neither has a forecast in these reports, but both are days customers are primed to shop local or give, and both land inside the busiest week of the year.

When is Cyber Monday 2026?

Cyber Monday 2026 is Monday, November 30, the last day of the month. That leaves a short gap between Cyber Monday and the first week of December, so anything you plan for December should be ready before Thanksgiving week starts.

What to queue before November 1

October is already a big month by itself. Adobe expects $95.8 billion in October online sales, up 8%, with $9.9 billion from Prime Day on October 6 and 7. Holiday shopping now starts well before Black Friday, and this year it’s been running for weeks.

For the brands we manage, six things are getting locked in right now:

1. Your posts for every week through New Year’s, scheduled and checked. Scheduled posts can fail without warning, so we verify every queued post and story for the week ahead before that week starts, every Friday, across Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. During the holidays, a post that quietly fails on Black Friday costs real money.
2. Your mobile checkout, tested on a real phone. With 63% of spending on mobile, walk through your own checkout on your phone this week. Look for slow pages, pop ups that cover the button and forms that fight autofill.
3. Your email list, warmed up before the big sends. A list that’s been quiet since summer shouldn’t get five emails in Cyber Week. Start sending now, and check your deliverability before a big send. Make sure your core flows are live too, especially abandoned cart.
4. Your creator content, briefed and in hand. Social and affiliate revenue are growing faster than paid search, and creators drive a fifth of affiliate traffic. If you’re working with creators, brief them clearly on usage rights now, so you’re not chasing files on Thanksgiving week.
5. Your product pages, ready for AI shoppers. Traffic from AI assistants is the fastest growing number in Adobe’s forecast. Clear product names, prices, specs and real answers to common questions help an assistant describe you accurately. Our GEO playbook covers the basics, and you can track that traffic in GA4 so you know if it’s working.
6. Your tracking, checked against real orders. Ad dashboards will show huge numbers in Cyber Week. Counters aren’t records, so set up a simple daily check against actual orders before the rush.

FAQ

What are the holiday shopping trends for 2026?

NRF expects November and December retail sales to grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Adobe expects online sales to grow 6.7% to $275.1 billion, with 63% on mobile, traffic from AI assistants up 130%, and social media revenue growing faster than paid search.

When is Black Friday 2026?

Black Friday 2026 is Friday, November 27. Thanksgiving is Thursday, November 26, Small Business Saturday is November 28, and Cyber Monday is November 30.

How much will Cyber Monday 2026 bring in?

Adobe forecasts $15.1 billion in US online sales on Cyber Monday 2026, up 6.2%, which keeps it the biggest online shopping day of the season.

When should holiday marketing start?

Now, if it hasn’t already. Adobe expects discounts of up to 14% in early November and October online sales of $95.8 billion. Shoppers are already buying, and your posts, emails and creator content should be ready before November 1.

Do small businesses benefit from the holiday season?

Yes. Small Business Saturday on November 28 and Giving Tuesday on December 1 both fall inside Cyber Week, when shoppers are actively looking to buy. The businesses that win them are the ones with posts, emails and offers queued before the week starts.

Getting ready for the 2026 holiday season

The forecasts are good news. The brands that turn them into sales are the ones whose posts actually publish, whose emails land in the inbox and whose checkout works on a phone. None of that is complicated. It just has to be done before the rush, and it’s how we run social media management and email marketing every season.

Want a second set of eyes on your holiday plan before November? Book a 15-minute call and we’ll walk through what you have queued and what’s missing. No deck, no fluff. Strategy first. Tactics second. The work works.

Reliable PR & Marketing is a strategy-first marketing agency in Bakersfield, California. We run integrated SEO, PR, web, and content for founder-led companies across Kern County and nationwide. Strategy first. Execution always.